In this post, I discuss South Wales Police’s action plan to reduce ASB and argue a more sustainable reduction requires local authorities to have their own plans
South Wales Police has published its Anti-Social Behaviour Action Plan for 2026-2029.[1] The police aim to stop bad behaviour by targeting ‘hotspots’ and repeat offenders. Police and local partners will identify hotspots. While the government will fund more patrols in those places. A local fund is also planned by the police and crime commissioner.
Hotspot policing contrasts with traditional policing. Traditional policing has favoured random patrols and quick responses to emergency calls. It is reactive rather than preventative. And it is more labour and resource intensive. Hotspot policing is attractive because it offers an effective use of scarce resources.
The most common criticism of hotspot policing is displacement. Offenders displaced from one hotspot go elsewhere. Offending is not reduced but spread around. Consequently, people are more likely to come across offending and feel less safe. But Home Office research has found no evidence of displacement. An earlier meta-analysis by the College of Policing found none either.[3]
The same meta-analysis found the crime reduction of hotspot policing is ‘small, but statistically significant.’ Evidence from the Crime Survey for England & Wales shows no reduction in anti-social behaviour (ASB) since 2023.[4] This is telling since hotspot policing was a key component of the national Anti-Social Behaviour Action Plan, published in 2023.[5]
Sadly, hotspot policing will not reduce ASB permanently. The action plan recognises as much. It concedes that ‘enforcement and visibility alone are not sufficient to deliver sustainable reductions in ASB.’
Prevention and early intervention are supposed to mitigate the problem long term. The action plan lists examples of prevention programmes commissioned by South Wales Police. These include ‘school-based education, mentoring support and hospital-based violence prevention work.’ These will ‘address the underlying risk factors,’ which hotspot policing cannot.
But I doubt education programmes alone will help much. Home Office research has identified seven risk factors for ASB perpetration. The research found:
‘An unstable home life, lack of education and susceptibility to peer pressure all put people, but particularly young people, at risk of perpetration. Poverty and deprivation, and trauma and childhood adversity played an important role for all ages. Mental health and substance abuse were closely linked to adult perpetration.’ [6]
Poverty has deepened. Five years ago, the average person in poverty had an income 28% below the poverty line; now that is 59% below.[7] Destitution has doubled since 2017. Child neglect is also increasing. From 2014 to 2024, the number of children looked after by local councils has increased 20% increase in England;[8] in Wales, the increase was 28.4%.[9] This far exceeds natural population growth. Family breakdown means that around half of children will grow up without both parents in the home.
It is no surprise that ASB has risen over the last decade or so.[10] Poverty, family breakdown and child neglect have worsened in that time. I emphasise those three because they often precede and cause the other factors, such as poor schooling or substance misuse.
But those three factors (and the others) are beyond the police’s powers, expertise and capacity to deal with. Local government should step in. What is needed first is a complementary action plan from the local authorities, which sets out how they intend to address the causes of ASB.
I have a few ideas of what plans should include. And I will set out those out in future posts.
SOURCES
[1] South Wales Police (2026) Antisocial behaviour action plan. Available at: https://www.south-wales.police.uk/advice/advice-and-information/asb/asb/antisocial-behaviour/antisocial-behaviour-action-plan/ (Accessed: 19 June 2026).
[2] Home Office (2025) Hot spot policing in England and Wales, year ending March 2023: Evaluation of Grip and bespoke-funded hot spot policing. Available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/hot-spot-policing-in-england-and-wales-year-ending-march-2023/hot-spot-policing-in-england-and-wales-year-ending-march-2023-evaluation-of-grip-and-bespoke-funded-hot-spot-policing (Accessed: 19 June 2026).
[3] College of Policing (2021) Hot spots policing. Available at: https://www.college.police.uk/research/crime-reduction-toolkit/hot-spots-policing (Accessed: 19 June 2026).
[4] House of Commons Library (2026) Responding to anti-social behaviour in England and Wales, Research Briefing CBP 7270. Available at: https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-7270/CBP-7270.pdf (Accessed: 19 June 2026).
[5] Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities and Home Office (2023) Anti-social behaviour action plan. Available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/anti-social-behaviour-action-plan (Accessed: 19 June 2026).
[6] Home Office (2025) Risk and protective factors of anti-social behaviour perpetration. Available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/risk-and-protective-factors-of-anti-social-behaviour-perpetration (Accessed: 19 June 2026)
[7] Joseph Rowntree Foundation (2025) UK Poverty 2025: The essential guide to understanding poverty in the UK. Available at: https://www.jrf.org.uk/uk-poverty-2025-the-essential-guide-to-understanding-poverty-in-the-uk (Accessed: 19 June 2026).
[8] House of Commons Education Committee (2025) Children’s social care, Fourth Report of Session 2024–25, HC 430. Available at: https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm5901/cmselect/cmeduc/430/report.html (Accessed: 19 June 2026).
[9] Welsh Government (2025) Children looked after by local authorities, April 2023 to March 2024 (official statistics in development). Available at: https://www.gov.wales/children-looked-after-local-authorities-april-2023-march-2024-official-statistics-development-html (Accessed: 19 June 2026).
[10] Ibid [4]
SamuelPitchford 